Some early numbers have begun rolling in and it looks like Channing Tatum’s rock solid abs have managed a first place finish as Magic Mike’s Last Dance is looking to do around $11 million for the weekend. That is slightly off from my over-zealous $14 million prediction, of course it is still possible for this threequel to over index on Sunday (which is generally a dead day at the box office due to the Super Bowl). Magic Mike’s Last Dance marks the second film Warner Brothers saved from a streaming only fate to give a full theatrical push (after House Party,) even if that “full” push is only on 1500 screens.
If that $11 million opening holds it would represent a franchise worst opening (2012’s Magic Mike opened to $39.1 while 2015’s Magic Mike XXL managed $12.8 million). That would match with this being the worst reviewed film of the franchise (at 46% on Rotten Tomatoes compared to Magic Mike’s 78% and Magic MikeXXL’s 65%.) All of that is to say: with these numbers, this will certainly be Magic Mike’s Last Dance.
As of right now there is a fight brewing at the box office between a 43 year old James Cameron and a 68 year old James Cameron as two of his films duke it out for second place. It looks like Avatar: The Way of Water will come out on top with an estimated $6.5 million while the 25th anniversary re-release (even though it really isn’t the 25th anniversary) of Titanic is eyeing $6.4 million. Of course when numbers are that close, anything can happen. Whichever film loses this weekend, one thing is for sure: James Cameron is a winner! (Check out our WTF Happened to Titanic episode).
Fourth place is looking be 80 For Brady with an estimated weekend take of $5.6 million. Paramount is still running their discounted tickets for the film which is enticing viewers to theaters. These tickets are around half off what a normal ticket would cost meaning that even though the octogenarian film is selling more tickets than its competition, it is bringing in less money. That may sound like a bad strategy, but these “throwback” tickets are bringing out a crowd that may generally wait for video and you have to remember that older skewing films like these tend to have strong legs when you consider that most people over 30 don’t rush out to theaters to see a movie a.s.a.p. This Tom Brady produced (and starring) film should ultimately prove a profitable endeavor for the studio.
Fifth place looks to be the M. Night Shyamalan film Knock At The Cabin with an estimated $4.6 million. The film had a solid week of bragging rights as the first film to bring down Avatar, but with a projected second week drop of nearly 70%, it appears the honeymoon phase is over and word of mouth is setting in. Night’s last film, Old, dropped nearly 60% in its second week and that seems to be the way it goes for Shyamalan films as the most curious audience members rush out to see it on opening weekend and then they kind of just fizzle out week to week.
Do you plan on making it to theaters this weekend or do you have a fun filled Saturday of making sure your Guac recipe is absolutely perfect for tomorrow’s big game? Let us know in the comments and don’t forget to check back tomorrow when we have a full rundown on this weekends box office numbers.